April 2016 U.S. House Update

April 18th, 2016

U.S. House: Most Competitive Contests- April 2016 Update

As filing dates come and go and primaries pass, many House races are beginning to take shape. Republicans control 13 seats currently rated as Tossups or worse, while Democrats only hold four, leaving Republicans open to potential losses in November.

House Chart April 2016

IA-01

Freshman Rod Blum narrowly won IA-01 in 2014 after defeating Democrat Pat Murphy 51.1 percent to 48.8 percent. Pat Murphy is running again in the Democratic primary; however, national Democrats have coalesced behind Cedar Rapids City Councilor Monica Vernon. Blum is unopposed in the Republican primary. This race is rated Tilt Democrat.

IL-10

The race for IL-10 will feature Republican Bob Dold and Democrat Brad Schneider for the third cycle in a row. In 2014, Dold won the seat by only 4,800 votes after losing the seat to Schneider in 2012 by 3,300 votes. Pre-primary campaign finance filings showed Dold had raised $2.4 million in the year leading up to the primary and had $1.6 million cash on hand. He was closely followed by Schneider, who raised $1.8 million in the year before the primary and had $1.5 million cash on hand. This race is rated Tossup.

NH-01

Incumbent Republican Frank Guinta in NH-01 will face at least two primary challengers in September. Rich Ashooh entered the race following Former State Party Finance Chairman Dan Innis’ unexpected exit. This will be the second time the two have run against each other in a primary after Guinta defeated him in the 2010 primary. Conservative State Representative Pam Tucker, who reported raising more than $100,000 in her first few weeks as a candidate, joined the race in February. This race is rated Tossup.

NV-03

The Republican primary to fill Joe Heck’s open seat in NV-03 is heating up, with seven Republicans filed to run. In the Republican primary are Danny Tarkanian and Assemblywoman Michele Fiore, among others. Favored by national Republicans and Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval is State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, though he has taken flack from conservatives for supporting tax hikes. This race has already drawn some national attention after Democrat Jesse Sbaih, one of six Democrats in the primary, accused Harry Reid of encouraging him to quit the race because Sbaih is Muslim. This race is rated Tilt Republican.

NV-04

Cresent Hardy, defending this seat faces minor Republican opposition while the Democratic primary is busting at the seams with eight candidates. Hardy will likely face either former Lieutenant Governor candidate Lucy Flores, State Senator Ruben Kihuen, or education nonprofit director Susie Lee in November. Hardy‘s win over incumbent Steven Horsford in 2014 surprised even the most optimistic Republicans, who saw the 54-44 Obama seat as nearly impossible. This race is rated Tilt Democrat.

NY-19

Conservative Republican John Faso has sewn up the endorsement of the New York State Conservative Party, the state’s Independence Party, as well as numerous county Republican parties in the race for NY-19. Faso has already aired his first district-wide ad of the cycle, introducing himself and discussing his legislative accomplishments. Faso will face businessman Andrew Heaney in the June 28th primary. This race is rated Tilt Republican.