February 2016 House Update

February 29th, 2016

U.S. House – February 2016 Update

The table below shows summarizes and aggregates ratings for the most competitive House races of 2016.

House Chart Feb 2016

While Republicans are at little risk of losing their majority in the House, their large gains in 2014 leave them over-exposed, which may lead to losses.

Republicans face three likely redistricting-related losses. In Florida, Republican Dan Webster’s district, FL-10, was turned into a heavily Democratic seat. Webster is exploring bids in the neighboring 6th or 11th districts, both of which are being vacated by Republican incumbents. In the St. Petersburg-based 13th district, incumbent Republican David Jolly decided to forego a reelection bid in favor of a run for Senate after redistricting made the seat Democratic. In Virginia, court-ordered redistricting turned Randy Forbes’ district, VA-04, into a heavily Democratic seat. Forbes is exploring a bid in a neighboring district being vacated by a retiring Republican.

Republicans also appear more likely than not to lose IA-01 and NV-04, which were surprise GOP victories in the 2014 wave.

Republicans will almost certainly pick up FL-02, currently occupied by Democrat Gwen Graham, which was redrawn to become a Republican bastion. After that, Republicans have only six realistic pick-ups on the table:

  • AZ-01, which is being vacated by Ann Kirkpatrick
  • CA-07, where Republicans have a strong challenger to sophomore Ami Bera in Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones
  • FL-18, being vacated by Patrick Murphy
  • MN-08, where Rick Nolan, a weak incumbent, faces a rematch against Republican Stewart Mills
  • NE-02, where freshman Democrat Brad Ashford is likely to face retired Air Force Brigadier General Don Bacon in a Republican-leaning seat
  • NY-03, where longtime Democrat Steve Israel surprisingly announced his retirement from a highly competitive seat

Republican prospects in a number of highly competitive seats, such as FL-26, IA-03, ME-02, MN-02, NH-01, PA-08, and TX-23, will be highly correlated to the performance of the eventual Republican presidential nominee in their districts.